Innovating Supply & Value Chains as Bird Flu Heats Up
SYNOPSIS
The spread and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses, such as H5N1 (also known as bird flu), metaphorically and literally puts industry sectors at risk, jeopardizing their bread and butter. Some sectors’ supply and value chains, like pet and food & beverage brands are more susceptible than others. Commercial real estate portfolios that contain properties and/or tenants in the restaurant, retail, and/or food manufacturing sectors are subject to headwinds too.
However, a cross-sector playbook could help de-risk, or even eradicate the threat that HPAI poses to food / supply chains, customers, and tenants. Pet brands and their parent companies are particularly in a unique position to drive mitigation and innovation in response to the growing threat of HPAI. Food & Beverage brands are as well.
Although this Silo Solving exploration explores HPAI from a perspective of business risk, and identifies potential opportunities to innovate corporate social responsibility strategies to assist in the avoidance of a larger economic crisis, this piece is not meant to down play the extreme health risk that HPAI poses across the animal kingdom, which includes us animals—human beings (Homo sapiens).
BACKGROUND CONTEXT
A Poultry Yard (c. 1660 - c. 1665), painting by Melchior d' Hondecoeter
The U.S. poultry industry was valued at $76.9 billion in 2022 (1). During that same year, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak began. By November 2024, the industry lost $1.4 billion (2). Since, the outbreak has continued to spread. That the zoonotic disease, which was previously only known to have effected birds, has spread and evolved to affect various animal species, particularly mammals, is an alarm that many sectors should not ignore.
As of February 24, 2025, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded 70 humans known to have contracted HPAI and one person with pre-existing conditions had passed as a result (3). The majority of those individuals contracted the disease via diary cows, followed by those in proximity to poultry livestock. It is unknown how a handful of people became infected. Although, the current public health risk is low for contracting HPAI, as of the time of writing this piece, nor has human-to-human transmission been reported, that does not mean food chains / supply chains are risk free.
Take eggs for instance. Even if customers are able to find them on their grocer’s shelves, and even if some can afford to pay 65%+ markups (since the beginning of 2024) for the time being, that does not resolve the reason for the cost increase, nor their growing scarcity(4). If farmers continue to have to kill millions of chickens, due to HPAI infection, that is a massive blow to food chains / supply chains with a variety of consequences. Also, if dairy cows are susceptible to HPAI, are not cows that make up the beef industry at risk too? More than just wild-life and livestock are at risk from being infected with HPAI. Domestic and wild cats, mice and rats, dolphins, and dogs all have been reported as susceptible to HPAI too (5, 6).
PET BRANDS COULD TAKE THE LEAD
The U.S.’ pet story has multiple components. There is the part that speaks to its supply chain, which includes items like egg products, poultry, and beef used for a variety of pet food. There is also the massive story that speaks to how much money humans spend on expenditures for their animal companions. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there were $100 billion in pet supplies sales in the year 2021, alone (7). That’s $12.1 billion MORE THAN what was spent on women’s clothing in the same year.
Congruently, according to the Dorothy A. Johnson Center for Philanthropy, between 2010 and 2020, the amount of giving to environmental and animal organizations tripled in comparison to human-centric recipient organizations, with rapid growth focused on animals used for food (8). With this in mind, and as a preventive approach to help prevent highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from becoming a larger part of the U.S.’ pet stories, and idea arose to mind.
AN IDEA SPARKED
What if pet brands (and/or their parent companies) allocate a portion of their sales to a fund(s) that goes towards the study, health, care, and well-being of other animals, especially ones that animal human-companions and humans depend on for food and that are highly susceptible to pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)?
EXAMPLES FOR ALLOCATION COULD INCLUDE
Veterinary Programs
There are only 30 accredited veterinary colleges in all of the US (9). They likely could use funding and students likely could benefit from scholarships in this economy.
Employment for Former Federal Government Workers
There are a lot of recently fired, yet super smart, dedicated, and informed people, who are very familiar with subject matter of the aforementioned. They are available for hire and could be valuable additions to Pet, plus Food & Beverage brands’ teams.Capital for Enhanced Farming Equipment and Training
Mitigating the effects, risks, and prevention of the spread of HPAI requires capital and investment. Yet, may farmers are already strapped for cash due to several reasons. They, as key members of supply chains, could use the support and access to advancements in AgroTech, equipment, infrastructure, and labor force training, to better improve the health of their live stock and protect the well-being of their workers. They also could benefit from more robust and funded science and implementation of regenerative farming practices.
OTHER SECTORS CAN PARTAKE TOO
Now is not the time for corporations to play chicken on many things, including highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). There are various ways they can de-risk and innovate their supply and value chains. It does require staying informed on cross-sector risks, plus the intersecting knowledge realms of economic, scientific, and social happenings such as HPAI.
Developing corporate strategies, programs, and campaigns, informed by both the arts and sciences can help brands—particularly those in the pet, plus food and beverage industries—innovate and mitigate a collective response to resolve the growing HPAI crisis. Good corporate stewardship and sustainable supply chain management could help prevent a cross-sector cascading domino effect.
Again, using a simple commodity as an example, think about eggs. They are folded into supply chains of many food brands, restaurants, bakeries, and wine makers. Did you know eggs are even used as a fining agent in many wines on the market, unlike vegan wines? Even some cocktails served at bars use eggs, such as to make a Whiskey Sour. And speaking of built environments, many businesses and corporations lease their facilities from real estate owners. So, if food & beverage tenants are faced with a debilitating supply chain risk, that could later effect their ability to pay rent, property owners would feel the effects too. The growing cost and scarcity of eggs, due to HPAI, is more than an issue that house-hold consumers are facing.
Cross-sector innovation is needed in these all hands on deck times, across geographies and markets.
Map indicating counties within the U.S. affected with highly pathogenic avian influenza, per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of February 24 2025(10).
Sources
“Poultry & Eggs - Sector at a Glance,” (USDA Economic Research Service, January 5, 2025), https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/poultry-eggs/sector-at-a-glance
“Payment of Indemnity and Compensation for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza,” Federal Register, Vol. 89, No. 250, Tuesday, December 31, 2024 (Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, December 2024), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/12/31/2024-31384/payment-of-indemnity-and-compensation-for-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza
“H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation,” (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, February 24 2025), https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Ariana Baio and Alicja Hagopianage, “Egg prices keep going up. Here’s the average cost for a dozen across the U.S.,” (Independent, February 5 2025), https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/egg-prices-us-trump-bird-flu-cost-b2698829.html
“What Causes Bird Flu in Pets and Other Animals,” (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, January 2025), https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/virus-transmission/avian-in-other-animals.html
Jackie Brown, “Bird Flu Virus in Cats: What You Need to Know,” (Cats[dot]com (Blog), January 20225), https://cats.com/bird-flu-virus-in-cats
Kristen Thiel, “We love our pets, and our spending proves it,” Beyond the Numbers: Prices & Spending, Vol. 12, No. 15 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2023), https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/we-love-our-pets-and-our-spending-proves-it-1.htm
Jamie DeLeeuw, “One Health and Animal Protection Philanthropy: A Growing Sub-Sector,” Beyond the Numbers: Prices & Spending, vol. 12, no. 15 (Dorothy A. Johnson Center for Philanthropy (Blog), January 2022), https://johnsoncenter.org/blog/one-health-and-animal-protection-philanthropy-a-growing-sub-sector/
“Accredited veterinary colleges,” (American Veterinary Medical Foundation, accessed February 24 2025), https://www.avma.org/education/center-for-veterinary-accreditation/accredited-veterinary-colleges
“USDA Reported H5N1 Bird Flu Detections in Poultry,” (U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, February 25 2025), https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-commercial.html
